That was not a that was not a large applause. Start again. That's better. Thank you.
Yeah. We're gonna make this interesting. How many
how many quotes are you gonna want that are gonna be after this session?
I don't know. I mean, five.
Okay. So good afternoon, everyone. It's great to see everybody here. It's been an amazing week here in Davos. Hopefully, everybody saw that we are having conversations here. Hopefully, everybody agrees. There are some conversations that we may disagree. There's many conversations that we may have agreed. But through those conversations and I think today's result with a peace agreement earlier today, the World Economic Forum is here to have those conversations, to have understandings, and also resolution. So it's an important component of who we and what we are, and I'm thrilled to have Elon Musk here. He came all the way from California to be here to see all of you. So thank you, Elon.
You're most welcome. I mean, I heard I heard about I heard about the formation of the the the peace summit, and I was like, is that is that P I E C? You know, little piece of Greenland, a little piece
of Venezuela. We we got one. All we want is peace. Okay. I'm gonna, as I said, I'm a pretty proud CEO of BlackRock since we went public. The compounding return of BlackRock to our shareholders was 21%. Since Elon took Tesla public, his compounded return is 43%. This is just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. This is why more citizens should be investing with growth, investing with their countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds invested with Elon when Tesla went public and how much we return with the all the pension funds that invested side by side with Elon and the growth. So a spectacular return. There's very few companies. Well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has that compounded return. So congratulations.
Oh, thank you.
It's a good measurement.
Well, we have an incredible team at Tesla. That's the reason.
So I wanna get into the dirt, the the meaningful component about technology, the possibilities. I wanna talk about AI and robotics, energy space, and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering, engineering discipline, scale, execution. And few few people, if not anyone, has the experience and the fortitude to confront these issues head on. Not just the ideas, but the execution across so many different technologies, Elon. And that's why I thought I thought it was important for us to have this dialogue here in Davos. So you're presently building on AI, on robotics, on space, on energy, all at the same time. When you look across those efforts, what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint?
Well, they're all very difficult technology challenges. But the overall goal of my company is to maximize the future of civilization, like basically maximize the probability that civilization has a great future and to expand consciousness beyond earth. So if you take SpaceX, for example, that SpaceX is about both advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond earth to the moon, to Mars, eventually to other star systems. And I think we should always view consciousness, life as we know it, as precarious and delicate because to the best of our knowledge, we we we don't know of life anywhere else. You know, I'm often asked, are there aliens among us? And I'll say that I am one. But Or you're from the future. They don't believe me. Okay. So but I I I think if anyone would know if there are aliens among us, it would be me. And we we have 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship. So I'm like, I don't know. It's bottom line is I think we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely rare and it might only be us. And if that's the case, then we need to do everything possible to to ensure that the the light of can the light the light of consciousness is not extinguished because we're effectively the way I view it is the measure in my mind is of a a tiny candle in a vast darkness, tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out. And that's why it's important to make life multiplanetary such that if there is a natural disaster or a man made disaster on earth, that consciousness continues. That's the purpose of SpaceX. Tesla is obviously about sustainable technology and and also at this point, we've sort of added to our mission sustainable abundance. So with robotics and AI, this is really the path to abundance for all. If you say, people often talk about solving global poverty or essentially how do we make, give everyone a very high standard of living. I think the only way to do this is AI and and robotics, which which doesn't mean that it is without its issues. I mean, this we need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics. We don't wanna find ourselves in a James Cameron movie, you know, Terminator. He's he's he's got great movies. Love his movies. But but we don't wanna be in Terminator, obviously. But but we if you have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it and ubiquitous robotics, then you will have an an explosion in the in the global economy, an expansion in the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent.
Elon, can that expansion be broad?
Yes.
Or is it narrow? And how can that be created? How can it broaden the global economy?
Yeah. It's I mean, I mean, the way to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots, the economic output is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots. Right. And actually my prediction is in the in the benign scenario of the future that we will the the robots we will actually make so many robots in AI that they will actually saturate all human needs. Meaning, you won't be able to even think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point. Like like, there there will be such an abundance of goods and services Because the my prediction is that there'll be there'll be more robots than people. So
But how do you then have human purpose in that scenario?
Yeah. I mean, you know, there is nothing nothing's perfect. You know? But, I mean, it is a necessary like, you can't have both. You can't have work that has to be done and amazing abundance for all. Because if it's if it's work that has to be done, then then then you and and only some people can do it, then you then you you can't have abundance
for narrow.
Yes. Narrow. Exactly. So but if you if you have billions of humanoid robots, and I think there will be, I think I think everyone on earth is going to have one and gonna want one because you're who wouldn't want a robot to, you know, assuming it's very safe, watch over your kids, take care of your pets. If you have elderly parents, a lot of friends of mine said they have elderly parents. It's it's very difficult to take care of And expensive. Yeah. It's expensive and it's expensive and there just aren't enough people to take care of the there aren't enough young people to take care of the old people.
Right.
So if you if they if you if you had a robot that could take care of and and protect an an elderly parent, I think that would be great. That would be an amazing thing to have. And I think we will have those things. So overall, I'm very optimistic about the future. I think we're headed for a future of amazing abundance, which is very cool. And definitely, we are in the most interesting time in history. I think there's more interesting time in history.
Can you and I reverse aging in this new history or are we going to see it?
I haven't put much time into the aging stuff. Do think it is a very solvable problem. When we figure out what causes aging, I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. It's not a subtle thing. The reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body, you know, with some pretty much age at the same rate. I've never seen someone with with an old left arm and a young right arm ever in my life. So why is that? That means that there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock Right. That is synchronizing across 35,000,000,000,000 cells in your body. And, There is some benefit to death, by the way. There's a reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan because if people do live forever for a very long time, I think there's some risk of an ossification of society, of of things just getting kinda locked in place. And, it just may become stultifying, just not lack vibrancy. That said, do I think we will figure out ways to extend life and maybe even reverse aging? I think that's highly likely.
I'm looking forward to that. Yeah. So in the future that you talk about, the AI models, autonomous machines, rockets, depends on massive increases of compute, massive increases in energy, expensive energy, manufacturing scale, what are the bottlenecks to get there? And once again, with all that expenditures, again, how can we make sure that it's broad and not narrow?
I just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad because AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can. And the cost of AI will get is already very low and it's plummeting every year. I mean, you still almost the cost of AI is almost meaningfully changing on a month to month basis.
There's open models now everywhere, yes.
Yes. Very there is open models. And the open models only lack they are maybe a year behind the sort of closed models. So I think the AI companies will seek as as many customers as possible, which means they'll seek they'll provide AI to the world.
But the cost of getting to there, the compute, the chips, the fab, the powering, that to me, what the what are the those are huge
The limiting factor. Yeah. Think the limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power.
It's just, right, it's energy.
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we're seeing the the rate of AI chip production increase exponentially, but the rate of electricity being brought online is 3%,
4% a year max.
Yeah. It's clear that we're very soon, maybe even later this year, we'll be producing more chips than we can turn on. Except for China. China's growth in electricity is tremendous.
They're building 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak.
Actually, solar is biggest in China. So China's I believe China's production capacity on solar is 1,500 gigawatts a year and they're deploying over 1,000 gigawatts a year of solar. Now for continuous solar load, you divide that by roughly, I don't know, four or five, call it, that's around two fifty gigawatts of steady state power paired with batteries. And that's a very big number. That's half of the average power usage in The U. S. So U. S. Power usage on average is 500 gigawatts. China, just in solar, just just in solar like that can provide steady state power and batteries can do half of The U. S. Electricity output per year just with solar. Solar is by far the biggest source of energy. And actually, when you look beyond or even on earth but certainly beyond earth, the sun rounds up to 100% of all energy. This is an important thing to consider. So the sun is 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter is about point 1%, and everything else is miscellaneous. Now even if you were to burn Jupiter in thermonuclear reactor, the the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to a 100% because Jupiter is only point 1%. If you teleported teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system and burnt three more Jupiters and everything else in the solar system, the sun's energy would still round up to 100%. So it's really all about the sun. And that's why one of things we'll be doing with SpaceX within a few years is launching solar powered AI satellites.
Right.
Because space is really the source of immense power and then you don't need to take up any room on earth. There's so much room in space. And you can scale to enormous I mean, you can scale to, I think, ultimately hundreds of terawatts a year.
You and I have had these conversations before, why don't you tell the audience what would it take for The United States and what type of geography would it take to have that solar field to electrify The United States? And then let me ask a question, why aren't we doing it?
Yes. So I mean, I guess rough way to think about it is 100 miles by 100 miles or call it 160 kilometers by 160 kilometers of solar is enough to power the entire United States. So a 100 mile by 100 mile area is is I mean, you could take basically a small corner of Utah Nevada. Nevada, New Mexico. Obviously, you wouldn't want it all in one place, but it's a very small percentage of the area of The U. S. To generate all of the electricity that The U. S. Uses. And the same is true actually, I mean, Europe. You could take a small you could take relatively unpopulated areas of, say, Spain and Sicily and generate all of the electricity power that Europe needs.
So why don't you think that there's a movement towards that here and in The United States?
Well, there is
As it is in China?
Well, unfortunately, in in The US, the the the tariff barriers for solar
Solar panel.
Are are extremely high, and that makes the economics of deploying solar so artificially high because China makes almost all the solar and the and the tech that
What would it take for Europe or The US to build it commercially if it's that scale?
Yeah. I I think I think well, I can tell you what we're going to do at SpaceX and Tesla is we're building up large scale solar. So the SpaceX and Tesla teams both separately are working to build to 100 gigawatts a year of solar power in The U. S, of manufactured solar power. And that will probably take us somewhere about three years or something. But these are pretty big numbers. And I'd encourage others to do the same. We obviously don't control The U. S. Tariff policy. But for other countries, I would that China makes solar cells that are incredibly low cost and I think it would be worth doing large scale solar.
So I know you are you're going to be having a couple of big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean, when I went to the factory, you showed me those robots. Yeah. How quickly, you talked about the billions of robots, but how quickly and how quickly can they be deployed in a manufacturing setting? How quickly can they be utilized and be functional and be that abundance that you talked about?
Humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. I think we do have some of the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. We accept probably later this year. By the end of this year, I think they'll be doing more complex tasks still deployed in an industrial environment. And probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to the public. That's when we are confident that it's very high reliability, very high safety and the range of functionality is also very high. You can basically ask it to do anything you'd like.
You're already seeing that in Tesla cars. The software changes that you're doing and what is it, every quarter now a software change that upgrades the ability of a robot within the car?
Yes. The Tesla full self driving software, we update it sometimes once a week. And just recently some of the insurance companies have said that it is actually so safe when Tesla full self driving is so safe that they're offering customers half price insurance if they use Tesla full self driving in their car.
And that could be monitored by the insurance company. Is that part of the agreement then?
Yes. But I think self driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point.
Right.
Tesla has rolled out sort of robotaxi service in a few cities and
will
be very, very widespread by the end of this year within The U. S. And then we hope to get supervised full self driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month.
Really that quickly?
Yes. And then maybe a similar timing timing for China, hopefully.
I want to move to space because historically, space is very capital intensive. It has historically been done by governments. Obviously, SpaceX changed the whole model. But we've seen it slow to scale, and now I'm starting to see it ramping up in what you're doing and other things. Talk to us about the, you know, the automation and AI, how it's changing the economics in building and preparing for us in operating in space?
Sure. Well, the key breakthrough that tells the major breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is full reusability. So no one has ever achieved full reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. We've achieved partial reusability with Falcon nine by landing the boost stage. We've now landed the boost stage over 500 times. But we have to throw away the upper stage. The upper stage sort of burns up on reentry for Falcon nine. So and the cost of that is equivalent to a small to medium sized jet. So but with Starship, which is a giant rocket, it's the largest flying machine ever made.
That's a rocket that you're using for the idea of going to Mars, right?
Yes. Mars and the moon as well as for high volume satellite stuff. So Starship hopefully this year, we should prove full reusability for Starship, which will be a profound invention because the cost of access to space drop by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability. It's the same sort of economic difference that you would expect between, say, a reusable aircraft and a nonreusable aircraft. Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every flight, that would be a very expensive flight. But if you only have to refuel, then it's the cost of the fuel. And so that's really the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space, we think, below the cost of freight on aircraft. So under $100 a pound type of thing easily. So it makes putting large satellites into into space very low, very, very cheap. And then when you have solar in space, you you get five times more effectiveness, maybe even more than that than solar on the ground because it's it's always sunny. It's cold. Yeah. It's it's it's always sunny, so you you don't have a day night cycle or seasonality Right. Or weather. And you get about 30% more power in space because you don't have atmospheric attenuation of the power. The net effect is solar is five times more any given solar panel will do five times more energy in space than on the ground.
Is there any capacity in doing that and taking that power and bringing it back to earth? Is there any way of doing that or you're just taking that power and utilizing it for the needs, like building AI data centers in its space.
I think the case, it's a no brainer for building AI, solar powered AI data centers in space because as you mentioned, it's also very cold in space. If you're in the shadow, it's very cold in space, just three degrees Kelvin. So you just have solar panels facing the sun and then a radiator that's like pointed away from the sun. So it has no sun incidents and then it's just cooling. It's a very efficient cooling system. So net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space and that will be true within two years, maybe three, three at the latest.
So looking ten or twenty years out, how would you describe success with AI or space technology and where do you see it? Is that can you are you more certain what's going to happen in the next three years or five or ten?
I don't know what's going to happen in ten years, but the rate at which AI is progressing, I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year. And I would say no later than next year. And then probably by 2030 or 2031, call it five years from now, AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.
We only have a number of minutes left, but I want I want to humanize you for a second. So there's no speculation that Make your you're joke about peace. Right. Right. I want to I mean, I would frame this question by you are the most successful entrepreneur industrialist in the twenty first century, maybe beyond. I wanna so I wanna really get this, you know, what inspired you? Whose inspired you? What was the foundation of of your curiosity? And and importantly, what was the what was it was there a moment, epiphany at any time in your life and career?
Well, I mean, as a kid, I read a lot of science fiction, sci fi, fantasy books Yeah. We talked about it. And comic books. And I always liked technology. I didn't expect to be where I am today. That seems incredibly implausible. But, yeah, I was I was inspired by reading about books about the future, about science fiction. And and I guess I wanna make science fiction, not fiction forever, at some point, turn science fiction to science fact. And, you know, we wanna have, like, Starfleet and Star Trek really for for real. Like, where where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, traveling to other star systems. I guess this is where you're
gonna be beamed up to go back to New York. I know I'd like to just be beamed back to New York instead of flying.
Yeah.
We're talking about Star Trek.
No. I guess my my essential I I would call the philosophy of curiosity. I'd like to understand the meaning of life, you know, the is the standard model of is the standard model of physics correct Mhmm. Regarding the beginning of life, beginning of existence and the end of the universe? What what questions do we not know to ask that we should ask? And AI will help us with these things. So I'm just trying to understand how do we get here? What's going on? What's real? Are there aliens? Maybe they are. And if if we've got if we've spaceships that are traveling to other star systems, we may find we may encounter aliens and or we may find many long dead alien civilizations. But I I am just I just I just wanna know what's going on. I'm curious about the the the universe, and that's my philosophy.
Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime?
Yeah. I mean, I would say, like, I I, you know, I I don't That's a long commitment. Been asked
Isn't that three years each way?
It's six months. Six months. That's all
it is?
Yeah. Six months, but the planets only align every every two years.
Okay.
So, yeah, I've been asked a few times like, do I want to die on Mars? And I'm like, yes, but just not on impact.
That's a good that's a good answer. Anyway, we're out of time. I hopefully, everybody enjoyed this. I mean, there's so many myths around Elon Musk. I could tell you he's a great friend, and I constantly learn so much from him. And I'm totally inspired by what he's what he has done. I've been inspired who he is, and I'm totally inspired by his vision of the future. And I don't think it's such a bad future and I agree with his optimism. So, Elon, thank you. Any last words?
Well, I think generally, I think my last words would be, I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future. Good. And and and generally, I think for quality of life, it is actually better to on the side of being an optimist and wrong rather than a pessimist and right.
On that note,
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