Elon Musk : How to Build the Future

Yeah. Thanks for having me.

Mhmm.

Well, first of think if somebody is doing something that is useful to the rest of society, I think that's a good thing. Like, it doesn't have to change the world. Like, you know, if you're doing something that has high value to to people, and and frankly, even if it's something if it's like just a little game or, you know, the some improvement in photo sharing or something, if it if it has if it has a small amount of of good for a large number of people, that's I mean, think that's that's fine. Like, stuff doesn't need to be changed in the world just to be good. But, you know, in terms of things that I think are most likely to affect the the future of humanity, think AI is probably the single biggest item in the near term that's likely to affect humanity. So it's very important that we have the advent of AI in a good way. That is something that you could look into the crystal ball and see the future, you would like that outcome. Because it is something that could go wrong, as we've talked about many times. And so we really need to make sure it goes right. That's that's I think AI work working on AI and making sure it's a great future, that's that's the most important thing, I right now, the most pressing item. Then I would say anything to do with genetics. If you can actually solve genetic diseases, if you can prevent dementia or Alzheimer's or something like that, that with genetic reprogramming, that would be wonderful. So I think this genetics might be the sort of second most important item. I think having a high bandwidth interface to the brain. Like, we're currently bandwidth limited. We have a digital tertiary self in the form of our email capabilities like computers, phones, applications. We're effectively superhuman. But we are extremely bandwidth constrained in that interface between the cortex and your sort of that that tertiary digital form of yourself. And helping solve that bandwidth constraint would would be, I think, very important for the future as well.

Well, I think first of I should say that I do not expect to be involved in all these things. So the five things that I thought about at the time in in college, so quite a long time ago, twenty five years ago, you know, being you know, making life multi planetary, selling accelerating the transition sustainable energy, the internet, broadly speaking, and then genetics and AI. I think I didn't expect to be involved in all of those things. I actually, at the time in college, I I sort of thought helping with electrification of of cars was was how it started out. And that's that's actually what I worked on as an intern was advanced ultracapacitors with to see if there would be a breakthrough relative to batteries for energy storage in in cars. And then when I came out to go to Stanford, that's what I was going to be doing my grad studies on is is was working on advanced energy storage technologies for electric cars. And then I put that on hold to start an Internet company in in '95 because, there there does seem to be like a time for particular technologies, when they're at a steep point in the inflection curve. And, and I didn't wanna, you know, do a PhD at Stanford and then and watch it all happen. And then and I wasn't entirely certain that the technology I'd be working on would actually succeed. Like you can get you can get a, you know, doctorate on many things that ultimately are not do not have a practical bearing on the world. And I wanted to, you know, just I I really was just trying to be useful. That's the optimization. It's like, what what are what can I do that would actually be useful?

Mostly not. So what is

be Yes, but mostly not.

Whatever this thing is that you're trying to create, what would what would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect? So that's why I think having something that has a that's that has a makes makes a big difference but affects a sort of small to moderate number of people is great, as is something that makes even a small difference but it but affects a vast number of people. Like the area Yeah. Under, you know, under the The area under the curve. Yeah. Exactly. The area under curve is would actually be roughly similar for those two things. So it's actually really about, yeah, just trying to be useful and matter.

Mhmm.

Very crazy. Crazy. I'm not shy about saying that. But I kind of agree I agreed with them that it was quite crazy. Crazy if if if the objective was to achieve the best risk adjusted return, starting a rock company is insane. But that was not that was not my objective. I I had simply come to the conclusion that if something didn't happen to improve rock technology, we'd be stuck on earth forever. And and the big aerospace companies had just had no interest in radical innovation. All they wanted to do was try to make their old technology slightly better every year, and in fact, sometimes it would actually get worse. And particularly in rockets, it's pretty bad. Like the in in '69, we were able to go to the moon with the Saturn five. And then the space shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit, and then the space shuttle retired. I mean, that trend is basically trends to zero. It it people sometimes think technology just automatically gets better every year, but it actually doesn't. It only gets better if smart people work work like crazy to make it better. That's how any technology actually gets better. And by itself, technology, if if people don't work in it, actually will decline. I mean, you can look in look at the history of civilizations, many civilizations, and and look at, say, ancient Egypt where they able to build these incredible pyramids, and then they they basically forgot how to build pyramids. And and then even hieroglyphics. They've they've forgot how to read hieroglyphics. Or you look at Rome and how they're able to to build these incredible roadways and aqueducts and indoor plumbing and they forgot how to do all of those things. And there are many such examples in history. So I think, sure, always bear in mind that, you know, entropy is not on your side.

Well, first of I'd say I actually think I I think I feel fear quite strongly. So it's not as though I just have the absence of fear. I I feel it quite strongly. But there there are just times when something is important enough, you believe in it enough that you do it in spite of fear.

Like people shouldn't think, I I I should People shouldn't think, well, I feel fear about this and therefore I shouldn't do it. It's normal to be to feel fear. Like you'd have to definitely something mentally wrong if you didn't feel fear.

Yeah. You know, actually something that can be helpful is fatalism, to some degree. If you just if you just accept the probabilities, then that diminishes fear. So when starting SpaceX, I thought the odds of success were less than ten percent. And I just accepted that actually probably I would just lose lose everything. But that maybe we'd make some progress if we could just move the ball forward. Even if we died, maybe some other company could pick up the baton and move and keep moving it forward. So that would still do some good. Yeah. Same with Tesla. Thought, you know, odds of a car company succeeding were extremely low.

Well, oddly enough, I actually think they're pretty good.

go? Okay. At this point I am certain there is a way. I'm certain that success is one of the possible outcomes for establishing a self sustaining moss colony, in fact a growing moss colony. I'm certain that that is possible. Whereas until maybe a few years ago, I was not sure that success was even one of the possible outcomes. It's a meaningful number of people going to Maas. I I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about ten years. Maybe sooner. I mean, maybe nine years. I need to make sure that SpaceX doesn't die between now and then and that I don't die, or if I do die, that someone takes over who will continue that.

Yeah, exactly. Well, first launch will be robotic anyway, so

Yeah. The Internet latency would be pretty significant. Mars is roughly twelve light minutes from the sun and earth is eight light minutes. So at closest approach Mars is four light minutes away. At first approach is twenty. A little more because you have to you can't sort of talk directly through the sun.

Okay. I I mean, I do wanna emphasize that this is not really something that I advocate or or this is not prescriptive. This is simply hopefully predictive. Because people will sometimes say, well, like this is something that I want to occur instead of this is something that think that probably is the best of the available alternatives. The best of the available alternatives that I can come up with and maybe somebody else can come up with a better approach or better outcome is that, we achieved democratization of AI technology, meaning that, no one company or, small set of individuals has control over advanced AI technology. I think that that's very dangerous. It could also get stolen by somebody bad, you know, like some evil dictator or country could send their intelligence agency to go steal it and gain control. It It just becomes a very unstable situation, I think, if you've got any, any incredibly powerful AI. You just don't know who's who's gonna control that. So it's not as I think that the risk is that the AI would develop a will of its own right off the bat. I think it's more that's the concern is that some someone may use it in a way that is bad. Or or or and even if they weren't gonna use it in a way that's bad, that somebody could take it from them and use it in a way that's bad. That that I think is quite a big danger. So I think we must have democratization of AI technology and make it widely available. And that's, you know, the reason that obviously Yumi and the rest of the team, you know, created OpenAI was to help with the democrat help help spread out AI technology so it doesn't get concentrated in the hands of a few. And and but then, of course, that needs to be combined with solving the high bandwidth interface to the cortex.

Humans are so slow. Yes, exactly. But, you know, we we already have a a situation in our brain where we've got the cortex and limbic system. And limbic system is is kind of the I mean, that's that's the primitive brain. It's kind of like the your your instincts and whatnot. And then the cortex is the thinking of a part of the brain. Those two seem to work together quite well. Occasionally your cortex and limbic system may disagree, but they

Generally works pretty well and it's like rare to find someone who I I've not found someone who wishes to either get rid of their cortex or get rid of their limbic system. Very true. Yeah. That's unusual. So so I think if if we can effectively merge with AI by improving that the neural link between your cortex and your digital extension of yourself, which already, like I said, already exists, just has a bandwidth issue. And then then effectively, you become an an AI human symbiote. And and if that then is widespread with anyone who wants it can have it, then we solve the control problem as well. We don't have to worry about some sort of evil dictator AI because kind of we are the AI collectively. That seems like the best outcome I can think of.

It seems to be going pretty well. I think we've got a really talented group at OpenAI

Yeah, a really really talented team and they're working hard. OpenAI is structured as let's say, five zero one(three) nonprofit. But many nonprofits do not have a sense of urgency. It's fine, they don't have to have a sense of urgency. But OpenAI does, because I think people really believe in the mission. I think it's important, and it's it's about minimizing, the risk of, existential harm, in the future. And so I think it's going well. I'm pretty impressed with what people are doing and the talent level. And obviously we're always looking for great people to join believe in the mission.

My time is mostly split between SpaceX and and and Tesla. And of course, I try to spend, a part of every week at OpenAI. So I spend most I spend basically half a day at OpenAI most weeks. And then and then I have some OpenAI stuff that happens during the week. But other than that, it's really And what do do when

Yeah. So that's a good question. I think a lot of people think I I must spend a lot of time with media or or on business y things, but actually almost almost all my time, like 80% of it is spent on engineering design. Engineering and design. So it's developing next generation product. At that's 80% of it.

Yeah. I think a lot of people think I'm kind of a business person or something, which is fine, like business is fine. But like I but really it's, you know, it's like it's SpaceX. Gwen Schottwell is Chief Operating Officer. She kind of manages legal, finance, sales, and kinda general business activity. And then my time is almost entirely with the engineering team working on improving the Falcon nine and the Dragon spacecraft and developing the Mars colonial architecture. And then at Tesla, it's working on the Model three and yeah. So I'm in the design studio, typically. Yeah. Half a day a week dealing with aesthetics and look and feel things. And then most of rest of the week is just going through engineering of the car itself as well as engineering of the factory. Because the biggest epiphany I've had this this year is that what really matters is the machine that builds the machine, the factory. And that is at least towards a magnitude hotter than the vehicle itself.

Yeah. Now, this actually has relatively low level of automation compared to what the Gigafactory will have and what Model three will have.

Actually the average speed of the line is incredibly slow. It's probably about, including both X and S, it's maybe five centimeters per second.

This is very slow.

I'm confident we can get to at least one meter per second, so a 20 fold increase.

Yeah. At least. I mean, think quite a one meter per second, just put that in perspective, is a slow walk. Or like a medium speed walk. A fast walk could be one and a half meters per second. And and then the the fastest humans can run over 10 meters per second. So if we're only doing 0.05 meters per second, that's very slow current current speed. And and at one meter per second, can still walk faster than the production